ZingSync

The problem with preseason polls is they feel especially empty when every year ends without any tangible results. Maybe this is why it feels especially fitting to see Purdue as the league’s runaway favorite entering this season.

This preseason marks the seventh year we’ve conducted the Official/Unofficial Big Ten men’s basketball media poll, an annual sampling gathered by myself and Adam Jardy of the Columbus Dispatch. The poll surveys two writers from each of the league’s 14 schools. Sometimes it turns out fairly accurate. Other years it’s comically imprecise.

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I’m not sure why we do this. Not because preseason expectations are meritless (measuring sticks carry a degree of value in framing results), but because, when it comes to the Big Ten, this so often feels like selling false hope. Over the seven years this exercise has been organized, only two Big Ten teams have played in the Final Four — Michigan in 2018 and Michigan State in 2019. While we annually predict who will be the best teams and players in the league, the league continues to ultimately underperform. Since the cancellation of the 2020 NCAA Tournament, the conference has produced 26 NCAA Tournament bids and collectively gone 23-26 in tournament games while only sending four teams into the second weekend. Meanwhile, the AAC, the WCC, Conference USA, and the Mountain West have sent teams to the Final Four in the last three seasons.

This is the recent history of the Big Ten, and there’s no avoiding it. I usually use this preseason column to tout this team or that player. But it all feels a little hollow after a while. The conference is approaching a quarter century without a national champion. That’s despite no league being on TV more, no league getting more attention, and no league consistently producing as many NCAA Tournament teams as this one. But the lack of return, especially of late, gives this the feel of a multi-level marketing scheme.

As expected, behind near-unanimous preseason player of the year Zach Edey, Purdue is this year’s favorite, drawing 24 of 28 first-place votes from our esteemed panel. The Boilermakers won the regular-season league title by three games last season, going 15-5, and the postseason conference tournament.

Is it fair to use the above preface to frame this Purdue team? On one hand, no — these are college players, and they’ll write their own story. On the other hand? Yes, very much so. No program has embodied this league’s March Meekness like the Boilers. Last year’s first-round loss to 16th-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson might as well have been a postcard. Losing to the shortest of the 363 Division I teams in the country with the biggest player in America? After those recent losses to North Texas and Saint Peter’s? You can’t make this stuff up.

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Despite that ending, the Boilers are the league’s clear favorite. You can’t pick against Edey. You can’t pick against the young guards and collective talent. You can’t pick against Matt Painter. Purdue will very likely do what Purdue does — play an elite brand of basketball and put together a regular season that results in a banner.

And after that?

Does anyone truly expect Purdue to make the Final Four? Does anyone really believe the Boilers will give this league the thrust of national relevance it desperately needs? Such faith feels a little … blind.

Behind Purdue, Michigan State is first on four of our preseason ballots, and second on 24. The Spartans are loaded and stand as a legitimate Final Four contender. That said, a team that looks an awful lot like this one lost 13 games last year.

After that, a mashup. Maryland is picked to finish third or fourth on 19 of 24 ballots. Illinois is picked everywhere from third to seventh, Wisconsin between third and ninth, Indiana between fourth and ninth, and Ohio State between third to ninth (with one outlying vote for a 13th-place finish).

No team runs the gamut quite like Northwestern. A year removed from making only its second NCAA Tournament appearance in program history, Chris Collins’ program is picked by three voters to finish as high as third, by two voters for sixth, by five for seventh, seven at eighth, four at ninth, three at 10th, two at 11th, one at 12th, and one as low as 13th.

The dispersion makes sense. Last year’s Big Ten standings were a wonderful mess. Northwestern won at Rutgers on the final night of the regular season, securing its 12th league win, the program’s most since 1930-31, and locked in the Wildcats for the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten tournament. If Northwestern had lost that night? The Cats would’ve fallen to a ninth-place finish.

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All told last season, 11 of the league’s 14 teams finished between 12-8 and 9-11. Of those 11, nine ended the ranked between 23 and 44 in KenPom’s efficiency ratings. How much better, really, was one than the other? It wasn’t much. Most of the league was separated by a couple of possessions here and there and the whims of scheduling — catching the right teams at the right time, avoiding double-plays against the league’s best teams, and protecting one’s home court.

This year should look awfully similar. With Purdue and Michigan State so clearly on a tier of their own in the league, the weight of the schedule should be especially heavy. It’s worth noting:

• Illinois plays twice against Purdue and MSU, along with Maryland.

• Michigan also gets Purdue and Michigan State twice, plus Ohio State and Illinois.

• Northwestern gets the Purdue-Michigan State double, along with Maryland and Illinois.

• Nebraska gets single plays against Purdue and Michigan State, both at home.

• Ohio State also gets the Purdue (home) and Michigan State (away) single play.

In the end, the league will be determined by the players. Edey is in a class all of his own. He was incredible last season and, unless he shrunk, should have no problem repeating such dominance. He’s the preseason player of the year and is joined on the preseason first team by fellow returnees Jahmir Young (Maryland), Terrence Shannon Jr. (Illinois), Tyson Walker (Michigan State) and Boo Buie (Northwestern).

Ace Baldwin Jr., a Penn State newcomer, drew 14 of 28 votes as our preseason Transfer of the Year. Hard to argue. The 6-foot-1 guard was last season’s Atlantic 10 Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year before following head coach Mike Rhoades from VCU to Penn State.

Mackenzie Mgbako, an incoming wing/forward at Indiana, is a potential new star in the league and received 19 votes as Freshman of the Year. Considering what Indiana lost this offseason (Trayce Jackson-Davis, Jalen Hood-Schifino, Race Thompson, Miller Kopp, Tamar Bates), he’ll be key in the Hoosiers’ attempt to keep momentum in Year 3 under Mike Woodson.

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With that, we come to 2023-24, and the results of the latest preseason poll:

Big Ten media poll

Player of the year

Zach Edey, Purdue (27)

Also receiving votes: Tyson Walker, Michigan State (1)

Freshman of the year

Mackenzie Mgbako, Indiana (19)

Also receiving votes: DeShawn Harris-Smith, Maryland (5); Xavier Booker, Michigan State (2); Myles Colvin, Purdue, and Scotty Middleton, Ohio State (1)

Transfer of the year

Ace Baldwin Jr., Penn State (14)

Also receiving votes: Olivier Nkamhoua, Michigan (6); Jamison Battle, Ohio State (4); Kel’el Ware, Indiana, and AJ Storr, Wisconsin (2)

First Team All-Big Ten

Second Team All-Big Ten

* — unanimous

Also receiving votes: Bruce Thornton, Ohio State 7; Julian Reese, Maryland 6; Steven Crowl, Wisconsin 5; Dawson Garcia, Minnesota 5; Braden Smith, Purdue 5; Chucky Hepburn, Wisconsin 4; Xavier Johnson, Indiana 4; Zed Key, Ohio State 4; Mackenzie Mgbako, Indiana 4; Payton Sandfort, Iowa 4; Jaden Akins, Michigan State 3; Connor Essegian, Wisconsin 3; Olivier Nkamhoua, Michigan 3; Tony Perkins, Iowa 3; Jamison Battle, Ohio State 2; Fletcher Loyer, Purdue 2; AJ Storr, Wisconsin 2; Tyler Wahl, Wisconsin 2; Malik Hall, Michigan State 1; Ben Krikke, Iowa 1; Donta Scott, Maryland 1; Kel’el Ware, Indiana 1

Brendan Quinn’s preseason ballot

1. Purdue
2. Michigan State
3. Wisconsin
4. Maryland
5. Ohio State
6. Illinois
7. Indiana
8. Rutgers
9. Nebraska
10. Iowa
11. Northwestern
12. Michigan
13. Penn State
14. Minnesota

Player of the year: Zach Edey

Freshman of the year: Mackenzie Mgbako

Transfer of the year: Olivier Nkamhoua

First Team All-Big Ten

Zach Edey
Tyson Walker
Keisei Tominaga
Terrence Shannon Jr.
Jahmir Young

Second Team All-Big Ten

Cliff Omoruyi
Zed Key
Braden Smith
A.J. Hoggard
Payton Sandfort

(Photo of Zach Edey at last season’s Big Ten tournament: Quinn Harris / Getty Images)

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